Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
